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A widely shared September 2026 essay by Warsaw-based analyst Tom Wojcik argues that Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz has fused oil, food and heating crises into a single chain reaction. The report cites Brent near $108, US diesel above $6 a gallon, a 25 percent smaller European potato harvest and warnings of 45 million more people facing acute food insecurity.
A Warsaw-based analyst, Tom Wojcik, published a widely shared essay on 21 September 2026 arguing that Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz since March has merged the world’s fuel, food and heating crises into a single, connected system failure. Writing from a country that borders “Europe’s largest war since 1945,” Wojcik documents Brent crude touching $108 a barrel on 24 September, US diesel passing $6 a gallon for the first time, and European harvests shrinking — and argues the underlying cause is three decades of trading stockpiles and buffers for cheaper dependencies.
According to the report, US and Israeli military operations against Iran began in late February 2026, and since March Iran has kept the strait closed using drones, missiles, mines and small boats. Wojcik cites the International Energy Agency calling it the largest supply disruption the oil market has ever seen, with tanker traffic through Hormuz down by more than 90 percent. A fragile ceasefire in early summer collapsed; by early September Brent was near $97 a barrel, around $105 by mid-month and touched $108 on 24 September.
On 22 September, according to the report, Iran handed Washington a written road map offering a regional ceasefire of up to 60 days, a phased reopening of the strait and an end to the American naval blockade. Washington rejected it, and Wojcik cites one report saying the US president expects to resume bombing after the November midterm elections. The detour around the Gulf runs through the Bab al-Mandab, where Houthi forces seized a key Yemeni port this month, he writes.
The closure has produced stark winners and losers. The Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF, which tracks the cost of hiring crude tankers, rose more than 600 percent in the war’s first two months and was up more than 2,300 percent for the year by early September, with some supertanker day rates reaching a record of about $860,000 on 10 September. Meanwhile, in France on 20 September, 15 percent of petrol stations had run dry — 20 percent in Grand Est — after TotalEnergies’ price cap of €1.99 per litre drew drivers away from record prices elsewhere, emptying tanks faster than they could be refilled.
Why One Strait Now Drives Everything
The essay’s central argument is that crises have stopped arriving one at a time. Wojcik writes that for thirty years countries and companies swapped buffers for dependencies — “a supplier is cheaper than a stockpile and a guarantee is cheaper than an army” — and that when one dependency failed, it was replaced with another rather than rebuilt. In 2026, he argues, several of those dependencies failed at the same time.
The consequences reach beyond fuel. The strait normally carries up to 30 percent of internationally traded fertiliser, and the UN Food and Agriculture Organization warns scarcity will cut yields and tighten food supplies through late 2026 and into 2027. The World Food Programme estimates sustained high oil prices could push up to 45 million more people into acute food insecurity. The baseline, Wojcik notes, was already the worst on record: 2025 was the first year of the Global Report on Food Crises with two confirmed famines, in Gaza and Sudan, while food assistance funding fell an estimated 59 percent between 2022 and 2025.
For Poland specifically, the picture combines a war next door, coal and imported gas for winter heating, and defense spending on borrowed money. European agriculture shows the strain in a single season: after last year’s potato glut, growers across Belgium, France, the Netherlands, Germany and Poland planted 14 percent less, then five heatwaves and a drought cut the expected harvest by 25 percent — with Belgian processing potato prices jumping from €10 to €150 a tonne within days.
The Ukraine War’s Role in the Fuel Squeeze
Wojcik frames the Gulf crisis alongside the ongoing war on Poland’s border. Ukrainian drones have struck Russian refineries at least 70 times this year — roughly once every four days by the IEA’s count — pushing Russian refining output to a two-decade low. Half of Russia’s six largest diesel plants cut or halted output this month, and Moscow has restricted fuel exports. According to the report, the US president has phoned Kyiv asking it to stop hitting diesel targets, underscoring how the two conflicts now press on the same fuel markets.
The French pump shortages, Wojcik notes, are a case study in his broader argument: a price cap designed as a cushion, operating in a system with no slack, converted a price shock into empty pumps. He also cautions that the official French figures understate the gaps, since a station is counted only when it is out of every petrol grade or out of diesel.
“Every generation believes it is living through the end of something. What is different in 2026 is that the crises have stopped arriving one at a time.”
— Tom Wojcik
Where the Essay’s Numbers Run Out
Several elements of the report rest on single or unverified attributions. The claim that the US president expects to resume bombing after the November midterms is attributed to “one report” and is not independently confirmed. The fate of Iran’s rejected ceasefire road map remains open. The Breakway fund’s manager, quoted in the report, says tanker rates will fall if the strait reopens — meaning the shipping gains are contingent, not structural.
The food picture is also lagged and uncertain: Wojcik stresses that fertiliser arriving late cannot recover lost yield, so the full harvest damage will only become visible through late 2026 and into 2027. The essay’s figures are dated 26 September 2026, and prices in the report have been moving week to week.
Watch Midterms, Harvests and Winter
Three timelines will decide whether the essay’s picture darkens or eases. First, the US midterm elections in November, after which — according to one cited report — Washington may resume military operations against Iran. Second, the arrival of smaller harvests across Europe and importing regions in late 2026, which the FAO says will tighten food supplies into 2027. Third, winter heating demand in Central Europe, including Poland’s reliance on coal and imported gas, and gas storage levels such as the half-empty cavern in Bavaria that Wojcik cites. Any reopening of the Strait of Hormuz — diplomatic or enforced — would relieve fuel prices first, with food effects following on a delay.
Key Questions
Who is Tom Wojcik and why is his report getting attention?
Tom Wojcik is a Warsaw-based analyst who published the essay on his site on 21 September 2026. It draws attention because it connects the Strait of Hormuz closure to fuel prices, food supplies and European winter heating in a single data-backed chain, written from Poland, a country directly exposed to both the Gulf fallout and the war in Ukraine.
How much oil traffic has actually stopped through Hormuz?
According to the report, citing the International Energy Agency, tanker traffic through the strait has fallen by more than 90 percent since March 2026, making it the largest supply disruption the oil market has ever seen in the IEA’s assessment.
Is France actually running out of fuel?
No, according to official data cited in the report. On 20 September, 15 percent of French stations had run out of petrol or diesel, concentrated among TotalEnergies outlets whose €1.99-per-litre cap attracted drivers fleeing higher prices elsewhere. The French government rules out a shortage.
Why does an oil strait affect food prices?
The Strait of Hormuz normally carries up to 30 percent of internationally traded fertiliser. The UN FAO warns that fertiliser scarcity will cut yields and tighten food supplies through late 2026 and into 2027, and the World Food Programme estimates high oil prices could push up to 45 million more people into acute food insecurity.
Could the situation improve soon?
Iran proposed a 60-day regional ceasefire and phased reopening of the strait on 22 September, but Washington rejected it, and one cited report says the US president expects to resume bombing after the November midterms. Any reopening would ease fuel prices first; food supply effects would persist into 2027.
Source: hn
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